Alberta has seen roughly 10,000 ‘excess’ deaths since 2020, and COVID doesn’t explain it all
The number of Albertans who have died in the last three years was significantly higher than considered normal for that period, and not all of the increase is attributed to deaths from COVID-19, according to new data from Statistics Canada.
Weekly federal death estimates show that there were 9,821 additional deaths over the course of the pandemic from early 2020 through the first week of November 2022. That means almost 10,000 more people died than would normally be expected for the same period. Researchers call this number excessive deaths.
The official COVID death toll suggests the disease is responsible for a large chunk of excess deaths. Alberta Health data shows that 5,277 people died from COVID-19 between January 2020 and early November 2022.
But experts say the COVID-19 numbers are missing the true loss of life since 2020. They point to a variety of potential factors in the other deaths, including the province’s poison drug crisis and a medical vacuum system.
Others argue Alberta is undercounting COVID-19 deaths.
But regardless of how deaths are tallied, knowing what’s happening is important to better address the root issues, according to a Calgary doctor who has spent countless hours with COVID patients.
“We’re looking at the semantics of dying with COVID, or dying from COVID,” said Dr. Gabriel Fabreau, public health researcher at the University of Calgary.
“And really, it’s irrelevant from a healthcare systems or population health perspective. A lot more people are dying who shouldn’t be dying.”
Demographers say some excess deaths can be attributed to an aging, growing population. But over the past three years, the total number of deaths has increased significantly.
Not everyone agrees on the number of excess deaths in the province. There are different methods of calculating this number. Estimates of the number of deaths vary.
Tara Moriarty, an infectious disease researcher and associate professor at the University of Toronto, puts the number of excess deaths in Alberta at 10,232.
She believes underreporting is one reason for the increased death toll in most provinces, including Alberta.
In her most recent report, Moriarty estimates that Alberta is missing thousands of deaths for the omicron period (December 2021 to November 2022) of the pandemic.
It estimates the number of cases and deaths based on the population’s infection rate on a given date. This expected case and death rate is based on jurisdictions with more detailed COVID testing and data sharing, such as Quebec and the UK — jurisdictions where excess deaths are more consistent with COVID deaths, she says.
Alberta defines a COVID death as a person who died from COVID-19 or in whom the disease was a contributing factor and is confirmed by a laboratory test prior to death. However, deaths are also being reported in community care outbreaks where only a rapid test was performed, according to Alberta Health.
When it is unclear whether COVID caused or contributed to a death, it is classified as “unknown” and reviewed by health officials, including nurses, doctors and, in some cases, the coroner.
In Quebec, the definition includes laboratory-confirmed cases. It also includes cases where someone with COVID symptoms dies with no other clinical explanation after being exposed to a positive case in a close-contact setting, e.g. B. if he lived under the same roof. A positive test result is not required in these cases.
According to her reporting, Moriarty says most Canadian provinces have been overemphasizing COVID deaths among the elderly and missing others.
“There is significantly higher excess mortality in younger age groups, even accounting for deaths from toxic drugs, which themselves are probably underreported,” Moriarty told CBC News.
Prior to the onset of the pandemic, Alberta averaged about 40 to 75 drug intoxications per month. In May 2020, that number fell below 100 just once and was up to 175 deaths per month.
A separate study in Alberta, based on weekly estimates of deaths, looked at excess deaths between March 2020 and December 2021. It found nearly 55 percent of deaths were due to COVID-19. However, it was also observed that another quarter of excess deaths were linked to drug poisoning.
“Although older adults are more likely to die from COVID-19, a massive increase in non-COVID-19-related mortality has been observed among younger people,” it said.
A spokesman for Alberta Health Minister Jason Copping said the inflated death toll was not the result of underreporting.
In a statement, the spokesman added the department is confident the province has reported COVID-related deaths. Alcohol and drugs, especially opioids, an aging population and greater use of the health care system are cited as reasons for the increase.
“The pandemic resulted in significant treatment shifts between 2020 and 2022, which also contributes to increased patient acuity that could impact the number of inflated mortality rates,” the statement said.
James Talbot, a former chief medical officer of health for Alberta, says underreporting could be a possible explanation for the excess deaths, adding that the province only records test-positive deaths.
“So people who died at home, in the ambulance, or in an emergency before they could be tested would be listed as excess deaths,” he wrote in an email to CBC News.
However, Talbot believes delays in medical care for other conditions, toxic drugs, and the overwhelmed medical system could also be causes.
Fabreau, the public health researcher at the U of C, agreed that the strained healthcare system is affecting patient outcomes.
He says a lot of research shows that healthcare overcapacity leads to excess mortality, whether it’s from longer waits for ambulances or emergency rooms, or reduced nursing staff in hospital wards.
“This may lead to the dramatic increase in missed cancer diagnoses that we’ve seen, driven by the collapse of primary care,” he said.
The lack of proper mental health care may lead to increased overdoses and alcohol-induced hepatitis from a surge in alcohol consumption during the pandemic, he said.
Fabreau also suggested that the social and medical complications caused by the arrival of the SARS-CoV-2 virus have led to the escalating deaths.
“There is a long litany of serious complications that come with COVID,” he said.
“Strokes, heart attacks, blood clots, organ failure – these are mortality, these are deaths and morbidity that are unlikely to be recorded as COVID but certainly contribute to the increased mortality burden.”
Misinformation fills the gap
Researchers like Moriarty believe that accounting for excess deaths is important information for healthcare systems and citizens.
She said much of this data is available from the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) and Statistics Canada, but reporting delays from many provinces make it difficult to paint a provincial or national picture.
Fabreau agrees.
“When data isn’t made available or data is difficult to access, that’s what we’ve learned in the daily age of misinformation [that] We will fill in the gaps with garbage and confuse the population and make it harder for people to understand what is happening,” he said.
Some reports of excessive death tolls in other countries, such as the UK and US, have led to false claims online that vaccines are to blame.
Fabreau, who leads a national study on COVID vaccinations, says his reading of the literature says there is no evidence that vaccination increases the risk of death.
“If anything, it’s just the opposite — it dramatically reduces the risk of death and serious illness,” he said. “And I’ve seen way too many people die from COVID.”
To date, nearly 97 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been administered in Canada and nearly 32 million Canadians have been vaccinated.
Data from Health Canada shows that of 400 post-vaccination deaths reported to the agency, their investigation found/found only four “consistent with a causal relationship to immunization.” One of those deaths took place in Alberta.
More than 50,000 deaths have been linked to COVID-19 in Canada.
According to Fabreau, Alberta could easily provide more detailed and comprehensive data on hospital wait times, ambulance call and wait times, hospital capacity, and wait times for major and minor surgeries without compromising patient privacy.
“We pay for these health systems,” he said. “So we should have access to the data on them and I think that improves accountability and trust.”
