Nate Danielson 2023 NHL Draft Scouting Report
The 2023 NHL draft class is packed. From the top with Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli it is arguably one of the best classes in recent memory. Add to that the fact that there are some intriguing names in the proposed first round, and it’s clear this draft is profound too. One of the guys forecast to be somewhere midway through the first round is an interesting guy to watch: Nate Danielson.
Scouting report by Nate Danielson
Danielson, born September 27, 2004, is a center for the Brandon Wheat Kings of the WHL. At 6ft 1in and 185 pounds, the 18-year-old from Red Deer, Alberta is already a good size. As he continues to grow, he’ll likely be around 6ft 3 inches tall and weigh nearly 200 pounds or more, something NHL general managers are likely to want on their teams. Danielson has played portions of the last three seasons in the WHL. Overall, he has 49 goals and 79 assists for 128 points in 123 games. This season he has recorded 23 goals and 33 assists for 56 points in 46 games.
His performance this season has earned him a range of draft rankings from notable websites and pundits, ranging from 8th to 33rd. In this author’s unpublished ranking, Danielson is ranked 22nd. Why the discrepancy in the rankings?
Nate Danielson Deep Dive
Danielson is ranked from the top 10 to the early second round by notable websites and pundits, according to Elite Prospects. What makes him this prospect with such diverse views? Well, it’s his play style. What exactly is this playstyle? Danielson is a two-way forward, and his offense is more conservative than most other top prospects in this class. Let’s dive into the deeper details of his game.
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Danielson’s skating
Nate Danielson is a surprisingly good skater. It’s surprising because he looks bigger on the ice than he really is. His steps look awkward as he’s still adjusting to his growing body. But despite the more mechanical issues with his crotch, he has a strong lower body. As a result, it reaches a very good top speed very quickly. Again, his first few strides aren’t clean, but they still exhibit explosiveness, which is important when he’s adapting his game to a faster NHL pace.
As for his step mechanics, he just looks awkward. His strides aren’t super long. It’s almost like he’s shortening his stride a little bit because he almost doesn’t realize how tall he is. It’s as if he’s forcing himself to take shorter steps, sort of hopping into his next step. It robs it of its acceleration and explosiveness to a degree, but again, it doesn’t hold it back. Finally, he doesn’t have good knee or ankle flexion, and it tends to affect his edges. He can’t always take corners without losing speed. But there’s no doubt that with NHL coaching, the mechanics can be cleaned up. Aside from getting used to his body, he may very well be a Tage Thompson-style skater. Maybe not “fast”, but it takes up space quickly.
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offensive skills
This is where Scouts fall apart the most when evaluating Danielson. He doesn’t push the pace. Nor is he the main puck distributor or the finisher on his line. Danielson doesn’t really interfere on offense with the same strength. But what he does is keep possession of the ball. Clever passes, strong forechecking when changing puck possession and willingness to fight in the dirty areas. Let’s assess where its impact is being felt despite the restrictions.
shooting ability
In three games followed, Danielson shot the puck just nine times (three per game) and hit the net just three times (33.33% shots on goal). Of these nine shots, only one came when there was little danger. The rest were medium risk (five) or high risk (three). Only one high danger shot hit the net, and only one medium danger shot also hit the net. In fact, most of those shots came while Danielson was either under pressure or there wasn’t a clear passing lane. Most of them were blocked by a defender. Learning to shoot more, get closer to the net, and work on getting the puck past the first layer of defense and onto the net. It will go a long way.
Gamemaking ability
When it comes to his death, Danielson is always looking for a teammate. Because he plays more on the edge or in support positions, he isn’t always given room to make plays. Danielson also doesn’t flash high-end offensive creativity or stickhandling. So he often cannot create his own space. This leads to him making the simple and easy plays and expanding offensive zone possession. In all, he attempted 25 passes and completed 20 of them (80% accuracy). But of those passes, 19 were aimed at low risk (16 completed, 84%). Only three passes were aimed at high risk and he completed two of them.
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What the numbers tell us
All of these tracked numbers were equally strong, which accounts for a large part of how the game is played. If you look at the numbers, it doesn’t tell the whole story. As previously mentioned, Danielson largely stays on the outside or backs up teammates with the puck as an easy passing option. Also, he doesn’t often shoot the puck unless he has no other choice. Learning to shoot more, going a little more into the high danger areas, and eventually increasing the pace a little could make him more dynamic. But his style is simple. Slow down the game, limit mistakes and tire the opponent.
Some microstats are not included. Danielson turned the puck nine times in the offensive zone. This includes passes intercepted (one) and the number of times he was knocked off the puck (eight). Meanwhile, he expanded offensive zone possession 16 times (13 forced turnovers, 3 keep-ins), again with consistent strength. Essentially, his role is to do the dirty work, much like a Michael Bunting or Ondrej Palat-type player.
Nate Danielson’s transition skills
When it comes to getting the puck on the ice, Danielson takes a backseat. For one thing, Danielson rarely cheats on the ice, so he doesn’t open as an outlet pass very often. Also, he usually lands behind the puck. Again, he stays in support positions and covers up any mistakes a teammate might make. Basically, he doesn’t go for the tempo in this area either, preferring to play a more conservative role in order to limit the onslaught on his team. That’s not a problem, but he needs to get more involved with the juniors than he needs to at least be more efficient and optimize that area before trying to move to the pros.
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Dive deeper into the transition numbers
As previously mentioned, Danielson is not very involved. When leaving the defensive zone, he was directly involved in 19 attempts. He managed to get out of the defensive zone with control over 57.9% of them. Compared to top prospects like Bedard and Zach Benson, Danielson averages 3.6 controlled exits per game. That’s exactly one less than Benson (4.6) per game and almost four less than Bedard (7.3) on average. Also, Bedard failed 88% of his attempts and Benson 73.7% of his attempts. That shows the differences between him and the top guys in this class.
When entering the offensive zone, he was directly involved in 15 attempts. He got an entry with control over 60% of them. Again, let’s compare him to the two players above. Danielson averaged three controlled entries per game. Benson averaged 10.3 per game while Bedard averaged 13.3. Again, when looking at efficiency, Benson won the offensive zone with control on 64.6% of his attempts, while Bedard did so on 72.7% of his attempts. There’s that discrepancy again.
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Danielson’s defensive zone play
This is where Danielson really stands out from the rest. His defensive play is extremely strong, especially at his age. Danielson takes full advantage of his reach and awareness of his own end. He keeps the opposition out and uses his frame to punch them out from the middle. When the puck is low, he makes sure to line up tightly to get to the puck when it breaks free. But he doesn’t get too close where if the puck hits an opposing forward he’s out of position. He is aloof enough that he only needs a quick adjustment and is able to defend himself.
Danielson uses an active stick to clog fast lanes. He uses his acceleration and speed to quickly catch up with opposing strikers. Sometimes he can be caught chasing or puck watching. But that is relatively rare. But the numbers show he’s involved. In those three games, he averaged 28 touches in the defending zone and turned over the puck just five times while staying evenly matched. On these turnovers, he mostly works to get the puck back right away and doesn’t create many chances against his team.
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Nate Danielson’s potential
Danielson is an interesting player to project. He doesn’t have the dynamism that many prospects in this class have. He’s also not the most dedicated player. But the fact that he’s an 18 with a “C” for the Wheat Kings and that he’s so mature in his game makes General Managers overlook that aspect a little more. Plain and simple, his game is projectable. Danielson plans to have an NHL frame with strong skating skills. His offense may never draw attention, but he’s responsible and does the little things that GMs and coaches will praise.
As for an NHL comparison, a few come to mind. In a recent podcast with Catfish On Ice, this author mentioned Anthony Cirelli. But perhaps a more stylistically reasonable comparison is a taller Yanni Gourde. Gourde doesn’t flash in any area but can face the tougher matchups to help his team while still providing some offense. Meanwhile, he plays the role of wearing down opponents with an energy play. Danielson can fit the same mold.
As for potential, Danielson could be a 10-15 goalscorer who comes with around 25-30 assists and eventually be a 45-point producer. Again, the offensive and puck movement skills aren’t there for him yet, but he has what it takes to be a full-time NHLer, which is valuable.
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