NLL Week 9 Best Bets

Calgary Roughnecks vs Toronto Rock (-1.5)

Odds on DraftKings sportsbook

We get an all-conference Canadian matchup Saturday night when the Toronto Rock travel to Calgary to face the Roughnecks. The Rock comes in as a 1.5 point favourite, and some sportsbooks have totals as high as 23.5.

Both teams have big wins and this game should be close. The two players to watch in this clash are goalkeepers Nick Rose and Christian Del Bianco, both of whom save more than 80% of shots. Rose in particular is fast becoming the favorite for the 2023 Goalkeeper of the Year title as she stops 83% of shots and scores the league’s best goals with 8.01 goals compared to average. It’s no surprise that LaxMetrics.com placed both goals in the top two in wins over substitutes, with Rose posting a WAR100 of 1.402 and Del Bianco a .772.

Although both attacks had some scoring games, they met weaker defenses and I think the defense will come out on top in this duel. Additionally, Toronto’s games stayed under 23.5 in four of their six competitions, while Calgary’s games stayed under 23.5 in three of their five. This is a great place to support two of the best netminders in the NLL and bet under 23.5 (-120 on DraftKings).

Choose: Under 23.5

Colorado Mammoth vs. San Diego Seals (-1.5)

Odds via bet365

There will be a rematch of the 2022 West Conference Finals between the San Diego Seals and Colorado Mammoth on Saturday night. The Seals line up as 1.5 point favorites and the total is 23.5 across most sportsbooks.

That showdown is an interesting handicap given how profitable Seals Overs (4-1) and Mammoth Unders (3-1) have been this season. Additionally, all five Seals games went above 23.5, while the highest-scoring Mammoth game only scored 24 goals and the other three fell below 23.5.

So how do you play overall? Short answer: you don’t.

Instead, I’m looking at a page in this game. While the Seals have covered the spread as favorites in just two of their five games, I think they have the offense to overwhelm the mammoth defense and win by a margin on Saturday. Many of their problems stem from an inconsistent goalkeeping situation, which Frank Scigliano has struggled with every start this season.

The Seals started with backup goaltender Chris Origlieri in their win over Vancouver before turning back to Scigliano in their final game against Calgary, but Scigliano would be drawn again in San Diego’s first loss of the season. I don’t think Seals coach Patrick Merrill will return to Scigliano and opt for a little more stability at Origlieri instead.

On the Mammoths’ side, defense continues to look elite ahead of last year’s NLL Finals MVP Dillon Ward, but offense is still a big question mark. This should be a good point for a Seals defense that can be more aggressive with skilled goalies while also relying on their strong offense. I think this is a good game to support San Diego after a loss and I recommend betting Seals -1.5 (-105 on bet365) in Colorado.

Choose: Gaskets -1.5

Vancouver Warriors vs. Panther City Lacrosse Club (-1.5)

Odds via bet365

The weekend ends in a win between two West Conference opponents that could be considered a must. Panther City travel to Vancouver to take on the Warriors, with both teams hoping to remain relevant in the West Conference playoff race.

Panther City come in as 1.5-point favorites after a big away win over Philadelphia and just a week after trading for 2019-20 NLL’s leading scorer Callum Crawford. The blockbuster trade gives Panther City another proven goalscorer in Crawford at right flank and was a clear indication that Panther City want to compete this season. While we shouldn’t necessarily expect a great performance from Crawford if he’s comfortable with this new offense, Panther City is a good fit for Vancouver in almost every facet.

The defense played well in front of goaltender Nick Damude, with the only blip in their six games coming in a 17-9 loss to league-best Rochester Knighthawks. In addition to their victory over the Wings, they also played extremely tight in the Saskatchewan Rush and were competitive in every game except for their loss to Rochester.

On the other hand, The 1-5 Vancouver Warriors managed to look competitive only in an early matchup with Calgary and two straight games with the 1-4 Las Vegas Desert Dogs. The defense hasn’t looked good all season, conceding more than 14 goals in five out of six games. They concede 15.2 goals on average, which is the worst value in the league. While their offense has enough talent to hang around, they could be in for another long night against Panther City.

That award for Panther City suggests that they, along with Vancouver and the Las Vegas Desert Dogs, are closer to the bottom division of teams than the top division teams of Calgary, Colorado, San Diego and Saskatchewan. Despite Panther City having a tough remaining schedule, they are much closer to being a playoff team than a bottom-feeder in the West.

I recommend betting Panther City -1.5 (+115 on bet365) but would certainly be fine with a bet on the moneyline (-130 on bet365) for those who don’t want to put Panther City as a favourite. Ultimately, I have a hard time believing that Panther City won’t win by more than a couple of goals if they eke out the win over Vancouver and I think this is a great price to bet on them to extend the 1 .5 points to cover.

Choose: Panther City -1.5